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Biography
Mohamed Zahran is a monetary and international macroeconomist in the School of Economics at the 糖心原创 and a Research Associate at the Economic Research Forum (ERF). He holds a PhD in Economics from City, University of London and an MSc in Economics of the Middle East from Philipps-Universit盲t Marburg. He is a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy and has held visiting research positions at the University of Texas at Dallas and the University of Victoria.
His research examines how monetary, fiscal and external shocks propagate when uncertainty, financing frictions and currency structure make macroeconomic transmission state-dependent. His work lies at the intersection of monetary economics, international macroeconomics, macro-finance and applied macroeconometrics. His current research focuses on international monetary spillovers; sovereign financing and private credit; exchange-rate adjustment, dollarisation and foreign-exchange constraints; and macroeconomic forecasting and learning under structural instability. A unifying theme is how the effects of policy and external shocks depend on the economic and financial state in which they occur.
Methodologically, he combines empirical macroeconomics and macro-finance with structural macroeconomic modelling, including local projections and LP-IV, high-frequency and narrative identification, nonlinear and state-dependent econometrics, Bayesian and state-space methods, macroeconomic forecasting, and structural DSGE models. His research is international in scope, with particular regional expertise in the Middle East and North Africa and emerging-market economies.
Expertise Summary
Expertise in monetary economics, international macroeconomics, macro-finance and applied macroeconometrics. Research interests include monetary and fiscal policy transmission, international monetary spillovers, macroeconomic and policy uncertainty, sovereign financing and private credit, exchange-rate adjustment, dollarisation and foreign-exchange constraints, and forecasting and learning under structural instability. Methodological expertise includes local projections and LP-IV, high-frequency and narrative identification, nonlinear and state-dependent econometrics, Bayesian and state-space methods, macroeconomic forecasting, and structural DSGE modelling. Regional expertise includes the Middle East and North Africa and emerging-market economies.
Teaching Summary
Macroeconomics 路 Monetary/Fiscal Policy 路 Financial & International Economics 路 Applied Econometrics 路 Political Economy
- ECON4016 Macroeconomic Theory - MSc
- ECON3013 Advanced Financial Economics - BSc
- ECON2006 Applied Econometrics II - BSc
- ECON1051 Politics of Economics - BSc
- ECON1016 Current Economic Issues - BSc
Research Summary
My current research examines how monetary, fiscal and external shocks propagate when uncertainty, financing frictions and currency structure make macroeconomic transmission state dependent. The… read more
Current Research
My current research examines how monetary, fiscal and external shocks propagate when uncertainty, financing frictions and currency structure make macroeconomic transmission state dependent. The central question is why similar policy or external shocks can generate different macroeconomic and financial responses across countries, markets and economic states.
A first strand studies monetary and fiscal policy transmission and macro-financial adjustment. This work focuses on how policy uncertainty, sovereign financing conditions, private credit and financial-market structure alter the transmission of monetary and fiscal innovations.
A second strand examines international macroeconomic adjustment under currency and external-financing frictions. I study international monetary spillovers, exchange-rate transmission, dollarisation, foreign-exchange scarcity and the interaction between external shocks and domestic financing constraints, with particular interest in emerging-market and MENA economies.
A third strand focuses on macroeconomic forecasting and learning under structural instability. This research investigates how forecasting and adaptive-learning systems should respond when relationships change over time, models are uncertain, or extreme observations contain unusual information.
Across these areas, I combine empirical macroeconomics and macro-finance with structural modelling, using local projections and LP-IV, high-frequency and narrative identification, nonlinear and state-dependent econometrics, Bayesian and state-space methods, macroeconomic forecasting, and structural DSGE models.
Past Research
My earlier research focused on macroeconomic uncertainty, fiscal-policy effectiveness, external adjustment and the transmission of shocks in emerging and Middle Eastern economies. This work examined how uncertainty and institutional conditions influence government spending, macroeconomic activity and financial adjustment, and helped establish my broader interest in state-dependent policy transmission.
A second strand studied international income flows and external financing, particularly remittances and their response to global and commodity-price shocks. This research developed my interest in the role of foreign-currency inflows, exchange-rate conditions and external financing in shaping macroeconomic resilience in emerging economies.
My doctoral and early postdoctoral research also developed a strong methodological focus on empirical macroeconomics, including time-series econometrics, uncertainty measurement, forecasting and the identification of monetary, fiscal and external shocks. These earlier projects provide the foundation for my current work on monetary and international macroeconomic transmission, macro-financial frictions, foreign-exchange constraints and learning under structural instability.
Future Research
My future research will develop a broader programme on state-dependent macroeconomic transmission under uncertainty, information frictions, financing constraints and currency structure. A central objective is to understand how expectations, policy communication and changing information sets interact with financial conditions to shape the transmission of monetary, fiscal and external shocks.
One direction will examine monetary-fiscal interactions more closely, particularly how sovereign financing needs, debt structure, private credit conditions and financial-market segmentation affect monetary-policy transmission. A second will extend my international macroeconomic research on foreign-exchange scarcity, currency denomination and external-finance constraints, with particular attention to how these mechanisms alter adjustment to global monetary, commodity-price and capital-flow shocks in emerging and open economies.
A third direction will develop methods for forecasting and policy analysis when macroeconomic relationships are unstable. This work will combine adaptive learning, Bayesian and state-space methods, nonlinear empirical models and structural DSGE frameworks to study how policymakers and forecasters should respond to structural change, model uncertainty and extreme observations.
Across these areas, my aim is to connect empirical identification more closely with structural economic mechanisms and to produce research that is relevant both to academic macroeconomics and to central banks and other policy institutions.