Wednesday, 11 February 2026
New research, led by experts at the 糖心原创, has found that smoking prevalence among 12 to 30-year-olds in England could drop below 5% decades earlier than expected, if the government progressively raises the age of tobacco sale.
With less than a year to go until the planned introduction of the “smokefree generation” law, researchers at the University have modelled the policy’s potential impact on smoking rates and health inequalities. The findings are published in the BMJ-owned journal Tobacco Control.
The proposed legislation, part of the Government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, would progressively raise the age of sale so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally be sold tobacco, starting from 2027.
New research, led by experts at the 糖心原创, has found that smoking prevalence among 12 to 30-year-olds in England could drop below 5% decades earlier than expected, if the government progressively raises the age of tobacco sale.
With less than a year to go until the planned introduction of the “smokefree generation” law, researchers at the University have modelled the policy’s potential impact on smoking rates and health inequalities. The findings are published in the BMJ-owned journal Tobacco Control.
The proposed legislation, part of the Government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, would progressively raise the age of sale so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally be sold tobacco, starting from 2027.
This modelling suggests the smokefree generation law could help stop young people from ever starting to smoke, accelerating progress towards a tobacco-free future. But how the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly.鈥�
The research team’s projections differ from the government’s published impact assessment because they use more cautious assumptions about how much the policy will reduce smoking initiation year-on-year.
The UK government’s modelling assumes a 30% cumulative annual reduction in smoking initiation based on the decline seen when the age of sale increased from 16 to 18 in England. The 糖心原创 team’s central scenario uses a more conservative assumption of a 5% cumulative annual reduction, informed by evidence from international age of sale laws, alongside a scenario aligned with government assumptions. Even under these more cautious assumptions, the modelling still suggests the policy could deliver substantial reductions in prevalence and large long-term health gains compared to no law. If declines are in line with the government’s assumptions, then the 5% prevalence target could be reached in the 2030s.
Hazel Cheeseman, Chief Executive of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) said: “We cannot yet be certain of the full impact of the smokefree generation law, but this modelling shows it could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the nation’s health for the long term. It also sends a clear warning: without further action, some people will be left behind. As this law comes into force, the Government must set out how it will ensure every smoker has the support they need to quit, so that no one is excluded from the benefits of a truly smokefree generation.”
Alizée Froguel, prevention policy manager at Cancer Research UK, said: “Smoking is the leading cause of cancer deaths in England. This study highlights what a landmark step the age of sale legislation will be in helping protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction. Strong enforcement and effective implementation of this policy will also be critical to its success.
“The UK Government must now swiftly pass and implement the Tobacco and Vapes Bill alongside sustainable funding for stop smoking services. Smoking rates are three times higher in the most deprived areas of the country, so it’s vital that this support is tailored to people who need it the most.”
Story credits
More information is available from Nathan Davies from the School of Medicine at nathan.davies@nottingham.ac.uk
- Davies N, Murray R, Morling JR et al. Impact of the UK’s smokefree generation policy on tobacco-related equity in England: a simulation study. Tobacco Control 2026;0:1–8. The paper is available on Wednesday 11 February at doi:10.1136/tc-2025-059669
- The smokefree generation policy would prohibit the sale of tobacco to people born in 2009 or later, with implementation planned from 2027. E-cigarettes are not covered but the Tobacco and Vapes Bill includes separate powers to restrict vape flavours, packaging, and displays to make them less appealing to children.
- The study focused on England and modelled smoking prevalence and health outcomes for people aged 12 to 30, projecting impacts from 2023 to 2075 under different policy scenarios.
- Health impact was measured using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which capture both longer life and better health. These are “discounted” by 3.5% each year, meaning that health benefits in the future are valued less than benefits today. This is standard practice in health economics and reflects the idea that people generally place more value on benefits that happen sooner rather than later.
- The modelling suggests that while the smokefree generation policy reduces absolute inequalities in smoking prevalence, reducing relative inequalities is more likely if the policy is implemented using a proportionate universalism approach, with greater resource applied in more deprived areas.
- The research team was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) through the HEE/NIHR Integrated Clinical Academic Programme (grant NIHR302872). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.
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