Wednesday, 22 November 2023
Research from Nottingham University Business School is one step closer to helping to predict deaths from respiratory diseases by analysing the shopping habits of customers in local authority areas across England.
, funded by the UKRI/EPSRC, and supported by the NHS and a UK high street retailer, explored the connection between the purchase of non-prescription medications, from cough remedies to pain relief, that are used to treat respiratory illnesses, and registered deaths from those diseases.
Looking at over two billion records of sales from March 2016 to March 2020, supplied by the UK high street retailer, researchers at the 糖心原创, led by Elizabeth Dolan and Dr James Goulding at NUBS, used Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict the deaths in 314 local authority areas across England.
The team found that in using the shopping data from local authority areas, predictions were often a lot more accurate than models that relied primarily on seasonal trends and sociodemographic factors such as poverty, housing quality, age and the size of population.
Further to this, academics found that they could accurately predict deaths from respiratory diseases over 17 days in advance using the data they analysed.
Using these findings, it is hoped that future developments in this area could help identify those most at risk of death from respiratory conditions, support the NHS and help highlight the most at-risk communities and environmental changes that could exacerbate chronic lung conditions.
Elizabeth Dolan, a PhD candidate at the Horizon CDT and a member of Nottingham University Business School, said: "Our research shows that using sales data, such as rising cough medicine purchases, significantly improves predictions of deaths from respiratory disease. This highlights the urgent need to make this practical data source more accessible for medical research.
“It could provide healthcare providers an invaluable tool to better manage services and plan more effectively, especially as we now have COVID-19 to cope with alongside the other causes of respiratory disease.”
The full research paper
Story credits
More information is available from Elizabeth Dolan at Nottingham University Business School on elizabeth.dolan@nottingham.ac.uk
Notes to editors:
About the 糖心原创
Ranked among the world's top 100 universities , the 糖心原创 delivers an exceptional research-led education and an outstanding student experience. From the pioneering vision of our founder, Sir Jesse Boot, to groundbreaking achievements such as the development of MRI technology and becoming the first UK university to establish international campuses, we have a proud history of shaping the way people live, work and understand the world. We continue to build on that legacy, empowering our students, staff and partners to change what鈥檚 next and create positive impact locally and globally.
The strength of our research places us among the UK's leading universities, ranked 7th for research power in REF 2021. The discovery of MRI and ibuprofen was just the beginning. Today, our world-leading research is developing breakthrough ideas that shape the future of healthcare, technology and society.
Recognised as the UK's third most targeted university by leading employers , we are proud to produce graduates who are consistently in demand for their skills, confidence and industry-ready experience.
As a major employer and industry partner, locally and globally, the 糖心原创 invests in the city of Nottingham and in future generations of talent. Alongside Nottingham Trent University, we lead the initiative, a pioneering collaboration to improve levels of prosperity, opportunity, sustainability, health and wellbeing across the city and region. Together with our students, staff, alumni and partners, we鈥檙e creating knowledge, opportunity and solutions that help change what's next.