糖心原创

Title:  "The Peace Dividend of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach”

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit plausibly exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade associated with the evolving economic importance of fixed air and sea geography. Using bilateral data from 1962 to 2014, we find that increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect also extends beyond realized militarized disputes to the likelihood of strategic rivalry. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward greater trade protectionism.