ࡱ> (im / 0DArialNew Romantt ʦ  0"DSymbolew Romantt ʦ  0 DTimes New Romantt ʦ  0@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` ( D$D k %  # %()*+,-./0145679%:=>?@AB 0AA 33f@3wJp ʚ;:0ʚ;g4>d>dhϦ  0:ppt<4dddd@k 0tɦ  <4BdBd@l 0t80___PPT10 pp?  %. - 1   'Positive and negative predictive value (($7'Positive and negative predictive value (($3 Positive predictive valuePPV is the proportion of positive tests that actually show disease PPV = 48/60 = 80% For every 100 positive test results, 80 will be true positive and 20 will be false positive4 Negative predictive valueNPV is the proportion of negative tests that show no disease NPV = 28/40 = 70% For every 100 negative test results, 70 will be true negative and 30 will be false positiveANew situationsWhat does a PPV of 85% mean? For every 100 positive tests in patients from a similar population how many would be true positives? Answer: N = 853BNew situations(A positive test result usually means that a patient will have treatment or a further test. In an asthma clinic a positive test is followed by corticosteroid treatment. If there are 20 positive tests and a PPV of 75%, how many patients would be given corticosteroids unnecessarily? Answer: N = 5 )3CNew situationsThe NPV for the same test in the same clinic is 90%. For every 20 patients who test negative, how many will be false negative? Answer: N = 239;?'Positive and negative predictive value (($/P& )*/028:<@D   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> f(    6*  08  ^    @*  0X  ^ `   @*H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.0[m Default Design 0 zr, (  , , 0} 9  } P*   , 0} L h9 } R*  d , c $ ?P  } , 0   } RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S , 6 3l   P*   , 6 3L hl  R*  H , 0e ? 3380___PPT10.̕c  0  cc@ b(   _ }U    #">2 `*U}    <2 ? U X No disease   @`   <2 ?}U  YDisease 3 @`   <02  ?"`   N @`   <t2  ?"`*   N @`   <\2  ?"` *  N @`   <t2  ?"`  N @`   <2  ?"`*   R3 @`   <"2  ?"` *  R3 @`   <H,2  ?"`~  R3 @`   <052  ?"`) ~  R3 @`   <=2  ?"` )  R3 @`   <U2  ?"`}   R3 @`   <y2  ?"`   N @`   <l[2  ?"`*   N @`   <4s2  ?"` *  N @`   <O2  ?"`  N @`   <2  ?"`*   R3 @`   <@2  ?"` *  R3 @`   <3 ?"`~  R3 @`   <$6 ?"`) ~  R3 @`   < ?"` )  R3 @`   <p ?"`}   R3 @`   <Q ?"`   N @`   <  ?"`*   N @`   <\ ?"` *  N @`   << ?"`  N @`   < ?"`*   R3 @`   < ?"` *  R3 @`   <i ?"`~  R3 @`   <hߒ ?"`) ~  R3 @`   < ?"` )  R3 @`   <ڒ ?"`}   R3 @` !  <,e  ?"`  N @` "  <H  ?"`*  N @` #  <  ?"` *  N @` $  <ْ ?"`   N @` %  <  ?"`*   R3 @` &  <N  ?"` *  R3 @` '  <脆  ?"`~  R3 @` (  <  ?"`)~  R3 @` )  <  ?"`)  R3 @` *  <h ?"`}  R3 @` +  < ?"` N @` ,  <x ?"`* N @` -  < x ?"` * N @` .  <x ?"`   N @` /  <x ?"`*   R3 @` 0  <%x ?"` *  R3 @` 1  <x/x ?"`~  R3 @` 2  <8x ?"`)~ R3 @` 3  <Ax ?"`) R3 @` 4  <|Jx ?"`} R3 @` 5  <Sx ?"` N @` 6  <Ex ?"`* N @` 7  <ex ?"` * N @` 8  <nx ?"`   N @` 9  <wx ?"`*   R3 @` :  <x ?"` *  R3 @` ;  <ȉx ?"`~  R3 @` <  <Вx ?"`)~ R3 @` =  <؛x ?"`) R3 @` >  <x ?"`} R3 @` ?  <x ?"` N @` @  <x ?"`* N @` A  <x ?"` * N @` B  <x ?"`   N @` C  <x ?"`*   R3 @` D  <x ?"` *  R3 @` E  <x ?"`~  R3 @` F  < x ?"`)~ R3 @` G  <(x ?"`) R3 @` H  <D| ?"`} R3 @` I  < | ?"` N @` J  <| ?"`* N @` K  <$| ?"` * N @` L  <,$| ?"`   N @` M  <4-| ?"`*   R3 @` N  <<6| ?"` *  R3 @` O  <D?| ?"`~  R3 @` P  <LH| ?"`)~ R3 @` Q  <TQ| ?"`) R3 @` R  <\Z| ?"`} R3 @` S  <dc| ?"` N @` T  <ll| ?"`* N @` U  <tu| ?"` * N @` V  <|~| ?"`   N @` W  <| ?"`*   R3 @` X  <| ?"` *  R3 @` Y  <| ?"`~  R3 @` Z  <| ?"`)~ R3 @` [  <| ?"`) R3 @` \  <| ?"`} R3 @` ]  <|? N @` ^  <|?* N @` _  <|? * N @` `  <|?   N @` a  <|?*   R3 @` b  <|? *  R3 @` c  <|?~  R3 @` d  <|?)~ R3 @` e  <}?) R3 @` f  <X }?} R3 @``B g  0o ?}UUZB h  s *1 ?}`B i  0o ?}  `B j  0o ?}U} ZB p  s *1 ? U `B t  0o ?U ZB u  s *1 ?}ZB v  s *1 ?}ZB w  s *1 ?}ZB x  s *1 ?}ZB y  s *1 ?}ZB z  s *1 ?}  ZB {  s *1 ?}  ZB |  s *1 ?}  ZB   s *1 ?}ZB   s *1 ? ZB   s *1 ?)) ZB   s *1 ?~~ ZB   s *1 ?  ZB   s *1 ?* * ZB   s *1 ?  ZB   s *1 ?** ZB   s *1 ?   0p} ]  N60 people with disease 23  0} ) M40 people without disease 2RB  s *D>~ ~ f   0,!} h NTotal population = 100 23fH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +4g 0 KfCfe(  R  s *~ ) R  s *W} _ }U   #">2 `*U}   <)? U X No disease   @`  <9?}U  YDisease 3 @`  <@ ?"`   N @`  <xI ?"`*   N @`   <S ?"` *  N @`   <D ?"`  N @`   < e ?"`*   R3 @`   <m ?"` *  R3 @`   <Hv ?"`~  R3 @`  <|h ?"`) ~  R3 @`  < ?"` )  R3 @`  <̐ ?"`}   R3 @`  < ?"`   N @`  <d ?"`*   N @`  <Ы ?"` *  N @`  < ?"`  N @`  < ?"`*   R3 @`  <ƀ ?"` *  R3 @`  <π ?"`~  R3 @`  <؀ ?"`) ~  R3 @`  < ?"` )  R3 @`  < ?"`}   R3 @`  < ?"`   N @`  < ?"`*   N @`  < ?"` *  N @`  < ?"`  N @`  < ?"`*   R3 @`   <D" ?"` *  R3 @` ! <t+ ?"`~  R3 @` " <|4 ?"`) ~  R3 @` # <= ?"` )  R3 @` $ <F ?"`}   R3 @` % <O ?"`  N @` & <X ?"`*  N @` ' <a ?"` *  N @` ( <j ?"`   N @` ) <s ?"`*   R3 @` * <| ?"` *  R3 @` + <ą ?"`~  R3 @` , <̎ ?"`)~  R3 @` - <ԗ ?"`)  R3 @` . <ܠ ?"`}  R3 @` / < ?"` N @` 0 < ?"`* N @` 1 < ?"` * N @` 2 < ?"`   N @` 3 < ?"`*   R3 @` 4 < ?"` *  R3 @` 5 < ?"`~  R3 @` 6 < ?"`)~ R3 @` 7 < ?"`) R3 @` 8 < ?"`} R3 @` 9 < ?"` N @` : <  ?"`* N @` ; < ?"` * N @` < <  ?"`   N @` = <l) ?"`*   R3 @` > <2 ?"` *  R3 @` ? <$ ?"`~  R3 @` @ <pD ?"`)~ R3 @` A <M ?"`) R3 @` B <V ?"`} R3 @` C <_ ?"` N @` D <h ?"`* N @` E <r ?"` * N @` F <0{ ?"`   N @` G < ?"`*   R3 @` H <̌ ?"` *  R3 @` I <H ?"`~  R3 @` J <0 ?"`)~ R3 @` K < ?"`) R3 @` L <` ?"`} R3 @` M <H ?"` N @` N < ?"`* N @` O <x ?"` * N @` P <` ?"`   N @` Q < ?"`*   R3 @` R < ?"` *  R3 @` S <x ?"`~  R3 @` T < ?"`)~ R3 @` U < ?"`) R3 @` V < ?"`} R3 @` W <H ?"` N @` X < ?"`* N @` Y <( ?"` * N @` Z <1 ?"`   N @` [ <: ?"`*   R3 @` \ <C ?"` *  R3 @` ] <L ?"`~  R3 @` ^ <U ?"`)~ R3 @` _ <^ ?"`) R3 @` ` <g ?"`} R3 @` a <p? N @` b <y?* N @` c <? * N @` d <?   N @` e <?*   R3 @` f <? *  R3 @` g <?~  R3 @` h <?)~ R3 @` i <?) R3 @` j <?} R3 @``B k 0o ?}UUZB l s *1 ?}`B m 0o ?}  `B n 0o ?}U} ZB o s *1 ? U `B p 0o ?U ZB q s *1 ?}ZB r s *1 ?}ZB s s *1 ?}ZB t s *1 ?}ZB u s *1 ?}ZB v s *1 ?}  ZB w s *1 ?}  ZB x s *1 ?}  ZB y s *1 ?}ZB z s *1 ? ZB { s *1 ?)) ZB | s *1 ?~~ ZB } s *1 ?  ZB ~ s *1 ?* * ZB  s *1 ?  ZB  s *1 ?** ZB  s *1 ?   s *f g  RTrue positive tests = 60(23  s *9  NTrue negative tests = 40(2RB @ s *D>~ ~ f   0G >IDEAL!(2  s *"`] W ;+(23  s *|"` w  7-(2  08t A True positive(2   0 6 V  A True negative(2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +ng 0 f}ff(  R  s * V R  s **  _ O2   #">2 60O2   <<?  X No disease   @`  <?O  YDisease 3 @`  <@  ?"`p 2  N @`  < ?"` p2  N @`   <  ?"` 2  N @`   <* ?"`  2  N @`   <3 ?"`   2  R3 @`   << ?"`%  2  R3 @`   <E ?"` % 2  R3 @`  < N ?"`: 2  R3 @`  <W ?"` :2  R3 @`  <` ?"`O 2  R3 @`  <i ?"`p   N @`  <r ?"` p  N @`  < { ?"`   N @`  <( ?"`    N @`  <0 ?"`     R3 @`  <8 ?"`%    R3 @`  <@ ?"` %   R3 @`  <H ?"`:   R3 @`  <P ?"` :  R3 @`  <X ?"`O   R3 @`  <` ?"`p   N @`  <h ?"` p  N @`  <p ?"`   N @`  <x ?"`    N @`  < ?"`     R3 @`   < ?"`%    R3 @` ! < ?"` %   R3 @` " <  ?"`:   R3 @` # <X ?"` :  R3 @` $ <@  ?"`O   R3 @` % <  ?"`p  N @` & <h(  ?"`p  N @` ' <  ?"`  N @` ( <:  ?"`   N @` ) <LC  ?"`    R3 @` * <TL  ?"`%    R3 @` + <\U  ?"`%   R3 @` , <d^  ?"`:  R3 @` - <lg  ?"`:  R3 @` . <tp  ?"`O  R3 @` / <|y  ?"`p N @` 0 <  ?"`p N @` 1 <  ?"` N @` 2 <  ?"`  N @` 3 <  ?"`   R3 @` 4 <  ?"`%   R3 @` 5 <  ?"`%  R3 @` 6 <  ?"`: R3 @` 7 <  ?"`: R3 @` 8 <  ?"`O R3 @` 9 <  ?"`p N @` : <  ?"`p N @` ; <  ?"` N @` < <  ?"`  N @` = <  ?"`   R3 @` > <! ?"`%   R3 @` ? < ! ?"`%  R3 @` @ <! ?"`: R3 @` A <! ?"`: R3 @` B <@&! ?"`O R3 @` C <D/! ?"`p N @` D <8! ?"`p N @` E <A! ?"` N @` F <\J! ?"`  N @` G <S! ?"`   R3 @` H <\! ?"`%   R3 @` I <te! ?"`%  R3 @` J <n! ?"`: R3 @` K <w! ?"`: R3 @` L <! ?"`O R3 @` M <! ?"`p N @` N <! ?"`p N @` O <! ?"` N @` P < ! ?"`  N @` Q <! ?"`   R3 @` R <0! ?"`%   R3 @` S <8! ?"`%  R3 @` T <@! ?"`: R3 @` U <H! ?"`: R3 @` V <P! ?"`O R3 @` W <X! ?"`p N @` X <`! ?"`p N @` Y <h! ?"` N @` Z <D" ?"`  N @` [ < " ?"`   R3 @` \ <" ?"`%   R3 @` ] <$" ?"`%  R3 @` ^ <,$" ?"`: R3 @` _ <4-" ?"`: R3 @` ` <<6" ?"`O R3 @` a <D?"?p N @` b <LH"?p N @` c <TQ"? N @` d <\Z"?  N @` e <dc"?   R3 @` f <ll"?%   R3 @` g <tu"?%  R3 @` h <|~"?: R3 @` i <"?: R3 @` j <"?O R3 @``B k 0o ?OZB l s *1 ?O`B m 0o ?O2 2 `B n 0o ?OO2 ZB o s *1 ?  2 `B p 0o ?2 ZB q s *1 ?OZB r s *1 ?OZB s s *1 ?OZB t s *1 ?OZB u s *1 ?OZB v s *1 ?O  ZB w s *1 ?O  ZB x s *1 ?O  ZB y s *1 ?OZB z s *1 ?2 ZB { s *1 ?::2 ZB | s *1 ?2 ZB } s *1 ?% % 2 ZB ~ s *1 ?  2 ZB  s *1 ?2 ZB  s *1 ?2 ZB  s *1 ?pp2 RB  s *D>w    s *Ș" W  RTrue positive tests = 48(23  s *ȝ"  NTrue negative tests = 40(2  0"YTY@ xFAll the positive tests show disease, even though some cases are missedG(G  s *""`7 ;+(23  s *""` w  7-(2  0$"j A True positive(2   0h"   A True negative(2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +g 0 ff`Af(  R  s * R  s * V R  s *  _ O?   #">2 67O?   <"?  X No disease   @`  <"?O  YDisease 3 @`   <" ?"`p ?  N @`   < " ?"` p?  N @`   <" ?"` ?  N @`   <" ?"`  ?  N @`   <$ ?"`   ?  R3 @`  <" ?"`%  ?  R3 @`  <@$ ?"` % ?  R3 @`  <$ ?"`: ?  R3 @`  <h($ ?"` :?  R3 @`  <$ ?"`O ?  R3 @`  <:$ ?"`p   N @`  <LC$ ?"` p  N @`  <TL$ ?"`   N @`  <\U$ ?"`    N @`  <d^$ ?"`     R3 @`  <lg$ ?"`%    R3 @`  <tp$ ?"` %   R3 @`  <|y$ ?"`:   R3 @`  <$ ?"` :  R3 @`  <$ ?"`O   R3 @`  <$ ?"`p   N @`  <$ ?"` p  N @`  <$ ?"`   N @`   <$ ?"`    N @` ! <$ ?"`     R3 @` " <$ ?"`%    R3 @` # <$ ?"` %   R3 @` $ <$ ?"`:   R3 @` % <$ ?"` :  R3 @` & <$ ?"`O   R3 @` ' <$ ?"`p  N @` ( <$ ?"`p  N @` ) <% ?"`  N @` * < % ?"`   N @` + <% ?"`    R3 @` , <% ?"`%    R3 @` - <@&% ?"`%   R3 @` . <D/% ?"`:  R3 @` / <8% ?"`:  R3 @` 0 <A% ?"`O  R3 @` 1 <\J% ?"`p N @` 2 <S% ?"`p N @` 3 <\% ?"` N @` 4 <te% ?"`  N @` 5 <n% ?"`   R3 @` 6 <w% ?"`%   R3 @` 7 <% ?"`%  R3 @` 8 <% ?"`: R3 @` 9 <% ?"`: R3 @` : <% ?"`O R3 @` ; < % ?"`p N @` < <% ?"`p N @` = <0% ?"` N @` > <8% ?"`  N @` ? <@% ?"`   R3 @` @ <H% ?"`%   R3 @` A <P% ?"`%  R3 @` B <X% ?"`: R3 @` C <`% ?"`: R3 @` D <h% ?"`O R3 @` E <D& ?"`p N @` F < & ?"`p N @` G <& ?"` N @` H <$& ?"`  N @` I <,$& ?"`   R3 @` J <4-& ?"`%   R3 @` K <<6& ?"`%  R3 @` L <D?& ?"`: R3 @` M <LH& ?"`: R3 @` N <TQ& ?"`O R3 @` O <\Z& ?"`p N @` P <dc& ?"`p N @` Q <ll& ?"` N @` R <tu& ?"`  N @` S <|~& ?"`   R3 @` T <& ?"`%   R3 @` U <& ?"`%  R3 @` V <& ?"`: R3 @` W <& ?"`: R3 @` X <& ?"`O R3 @` Y <& ?"`p N @` Z <& ?"`p N @` [ <& ?"` N @` \ <& ?"`  N @` ] <& ?"`   R3 @` ^ <& ?"`%   R3 @` _ <& ?"`%  R3 @` ` <& ?"`: R3 @` a <& ?"`: R3 @` b <' ?"`O R3 @` c <X '?p N @` d <'?p N @` e <"'? N @` f <'?  N @` g <l4'?   R3 @` h <D='?%   R3 @` i <'?%  R3 @` j < O'?: R3 @` k <W'?: R3 @` l <`'?O R3 @``B m 0o ?OZB n s *1 ?O`B o 0o ?O? ? `B p 0o ?OO? ZB q s *1 ?  ? `B r 0o ?? ZB s s *1 ?OZB t s *1 ?OZB u s *1 ?OZB v s *1 ?OZB w s *1 ?OZB x s *1 ?O  ZB y s *1 ?O  ZB z s *1 ?O  ZB { s *1 ?OZB | s *1 ?? ZB } s *1 ?::? ZB ~ s *1 ?? ZB  s *1 ?% % ? ZB  s *1 ?  ? ZB  s *1 ?? ZB  s *1 ?? ZB  s *1 ?pp? RB  s *D>w    00i'jt A True positive(2   s *m'"` 7-(2  0q'<gZ\ BFalse positive(2   s *u' W  RTrue positive tests = 48(23  s *s'  NTrue negative tests = 40(2  s *}'   OFalse positive tests = 12(2  s *Ȁ'"`  ;+(23H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +l 0 kk`k(  R  s *  ) R  s * ) R  s * R  s *  _ O9   #">2 67O9   <'?  X No disease   @`  < '?O  YDisease 3 @`  <' ?"`p 9  N @`  <' ?"` p9  N @`  <' ?"` 9  N @`   <' ?"`  9  N @`   <' ?"`   9  R3 @`   <\' ?"`%  9  R3 @`   <d' ?"` % 9  R3 @`   <l' ?"`: 9  R3 @`  <t' ?"` :9  R3 @`  <|' ?"`O 9  R3 @`  <( ?"`p   N @`  <X ( ?"` p  N @`  <( ?"`   N @`  <"( ?"`    N @`  <( ?"`     R3 @`  <l4( ?"`%    R3 @`  <D=( ?"` %   R3 @`  <( ?"`:   R3 @`  < O( ?"` :  R3 @`  <W( ?"`O   R3 @`  <`( ?"`p   N @`  <i( ?"` p  N @`  <s( ?"`   N @`  <0|( ?"`    N @`  <( ?"`     R3 @`  <̍( ?"`%    R3 @`   <( ?"` %   R3 @` ! <( ?"`:   R3 @` " <( ?"` :  R3 @` # <( ?"`O   R3 @` $ <( ?"`p  N @` % <( ?"`p  N @` & <(( ?"`  N @` ' <( ?"`   N @` ( <( ?"`    R3 @` ) <( ?"`%    R3 @` * <( ?"`%   R3 @` + <( ?"`:  R3 @` , <) ?"`:  R3 @` - <( ?"`O  R3 @` . <H) ?"`p N @` / <) ?"`p N @` 0 <() ?"` N @` 1 <1) ?"`  N @` 2 <:) ?"`   R3 @` 3 <C) ?"`%   R3 @` 4 <L) ?"`%  R3 @` 5 <U) ?"`: R3 @` 6 <^) ?"`: R3 @` 7 <g) ?"`O R3 @` 8 <p) ?"`p N @` 9 <y) ?"`p N @` : <) ?"` N @` ; <) ?"`  N @` < <) ?"`   R3 @` = <) ?"`%   R3 @` > <) ?"`%  R3 @` ? <) ?"`: R3 @` @ <) ?"`: R3 @` A <) ?"`O R3 @` B <) ?"`p N @` C <) ?"`p N @` D <) ?"` N @` E <) ?"`  N @` F < ) ?"`   R3 @` G <() ?"`%   R3 @` H <* ?"`%  R3 @` I < * ?"`: R3 @` J <|* ?"`: R3 @` K <* ?"`O R3 @` L < '* ?"`p N @` M <80* ?"`p N @` N <8* ?"` N @` O <A* ?"`  N @` P <K* ?"`   R3 @` Q <S* ?"`%   R3 @` R <\* ?"`%  R3 @` S <f* ?"`: R3 @` T <Po* ?"`: R3 @` U <x* ?"`O R3 @` V <* ?"`p N @` W <h* ?"`p N @` X <* ?"` N @` Y <* ?"`  N @` Z <* ?"`   R3 @` [ <4* ?"`%   R3 @` \ <* ?"`%  R3 @` ] <* ?"`: R3 @` ^ <L* ?"`: R3 @` _ <* ?"`O R3 @` ` <*?p N @` a <d*?p N @` b <*? N @` c <*?  N @` d <D-?   R3 @` e < -?%   R3 @` f <-?%  R3 @` g <-?: R3 @` h <$-?: R3 @` i <--?O R3 @``B j 0o ?OZB k s *1 ?O`B l 0o ?O9 9 `B m 0o ?OO9 ZB n s *1 ?  9 `B o 0o ?9 ZB p s *1 ?OZB q s *1 ?OZB r s *1 ?OZB s s *1 ?OZB t s *1 ?OZB u s *1 ?O  ZB v s *1 ?O  ZB w s *1 ?O  ZB x s *1 ?OZB y s *1 ?9 ZB z s *1 ?::9 ZB { s *1 ?9 ZB | s *1 ?% % 9 ZB } s *1 ?  9 ZB ~ s *1 ?9 ZB  s *1 ?9 ZB  s *1 ?pp9 RB  s *D>w    s *06-"`  ;+(23  s *t:-"`   7-(2  s * >-"` 7-(2  s *B-"`   ;+(23  s *E- g  UPositive tests = 48 + 12 = 60 23  s *tI- `  RNegative tests = 28 + 12 = 40  2  0(M-<gZ\ BFalse positive(2   0P-jt A True positive(2   0T- 9,  A True negative(2   0X- t  BFalse negative(2   s *t\- W  RTrue positive tests = 48(23  s *H`-  NTrue negative tests = 40(2  s *c-   OFalse positive tests = 12(2  s *0W-W  SFalse negative tests = 12(23H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B + 0 mmj% /m(  $ g% s *G&,$D 0 f% s * G&I,$D 0 $ s * ,$D 0 $ s * 3 V ,$D  0 $ s * ) ,$D  0 $ s *3  ,$D 0_ O?  c% #">2 67O?  $ <\-?  X No disease   @` $ <0-?O  YDisease 3 @`  $ <- ?"`p ?  D @`  $ <- ?"` p?  D @`  $ <- ?"` ?  D @`  $ <- ?"`  ?  D @`  $ <- ?"`   ?  H3 @` $ <- ?"`0  ?  H3 @` $ <p- ?"` 0 ?  H3 @` $ <H- ?"`: ?  H3 @` $ <H- ?"` :?  H3 @` $ <H- ?"`O ?  H3 @` $ <H- ?"`p   D @` $ <H- ?"` p  D @` $ <. ?"`   D @` $ < . ?"`    D @` $ <. ?"`     H3 @` $ <x. ?"`0    H3 @` $ <&. ?"` 0   H3 @` $ </. ?"`:   H3 @` $ <1. ?"` :  H3 @` $ <A. ?"`O   H3 @` $ <C. ?"`p   D @` $ <S. ?"` p  D @` $ <V. ?"`   D @`  $ <l_. ?"`    D @` !$ <o. ?"`     H3 @` "$ <q. ?"`0    H3 @` #$ <. ?"` 0   H3 @` $$ <p. ?"`:   H3 @` %$ <H. ?"` :  H3 @` &$ <H. ?"`O   H3 @` '$ <H. ?"`p  D @` ($ <H. ?"`p  D @` )$ <H. ?"`  D @` *$ <H. ?"`   D @` +$ <H. ?"`    H3 @` ,$ <H. ?"`0    H3 @` -$ <H. ?"`0   H3 @` .$ <H. ?"`:  H3 @` /$ <H. ?"`:  H3 @` 0$ <. ?"`O  H3 @` 1$ </ ?"`p D @` 2$ < / ?"`p D @` 3$ < / ?"` D @` 4$ </ ?"`  D @` 5$ <$/ ?"`   H3 @` 6$ <-/ ?"`0   H3 @` 7$ <6/ ?"`0  H3 @` 8$ <?/ ?"`: H3 @` 9$ <H/ ?"`: H3 @` :$ <Q/ ?"`O H3 @` ;$ <Z/ ?"`p D @` <$ <c/ ?"`p D @` =$ <l/ ?"` D @` >$ <u/ ?"`  D @` ?$ <~/ ?"`   H3 @` @$ </ ?"`0   H3 @` A$ </ ?"`0  H3 @` B$ </ ?"`: H3 @` C$ </ ?"`: H3 @` D$ </ ?"`O H3 @` E$ </ ?"`p D @` F$ </ ?"`p D @` G$ </ ?"` D @` H$ </ ?"`  D @` I$ </ ?"`   H3 @` J$ </ ?"`0   H3 @` K$ </ ?"`0  H3 @` L$ </ ?"`: H3 @` M$ </ ?"`: H3 @` N$ <0 ?"`O H3 @` O$ <0 ?"`p D @` P$ <\ 0 ?"`p D @` Q$ <@0 ?"` D @` R$ <$0 ?"`  D @` S$ <%0 ?"`   H3 @` T$ <-0 ?"`0   H3 @` U$ <60 ?"`0  H3 @` V$ <?0 ?"`: H3 @` W$ <H0 ?"`: H3 @` X$ <|Q0 ?"`O H3 @` Y$ <`Z0 ?"`p D @` Z$ <Dc0 ?"`p D @` [$ <(l0 ?"` D @` \$ < u0 ?"`  D @` ]$ <}0 ?"`   H3 @` ^$ <Ԇ0 ?"`0   H3 @` _$ <0 ?"`0  H3 @` `$ <0 ?"`: H3 @` a$ <0 ?"`: H3 @` b$ <d0 ?"`O H3 @` c$ <H0?p D @` d$ <,0?p D @` e$ <0? D @` f$ <0?  D @` g$ <0?   H3 @` h$ <0?0   H3 @` i$ <0?0  H3 @` j$ <1?: H3 @` k$ < 1?: H3 @` l$ <1?O H3 @``B m$ 0o ?OZB n$ s *1 ?O `B o$ 0o ?O? ? `B p$ 0o ?OO? ZB q$ s *1 ?  ? `B r$ 0o ?? ZB s$ s *1 ?O ZB t$ s *1 ?OZB u$ s *1 ?OZB v$ s *1 ?O ZB w$ s *1 ?O ZB x$ s *1 ?O  ZB y$ s *1 ?O  ZB z$ s *1 ?O  ZB {$ s *1 ?OZB |$ s *g  ?? ZB }$ s *g  ?::? ZB ~$ s *g  ?? ZB $ s *g  ?0 0 ? ZB $ s *g  ?  ZB $ s *g  ?? ZB $ s *g  ?ZB $ s *g  ?pp? ZB $ s *g  ?  ? ZB % s *1 ?  ZB &% s *g  ?? ZB ,% s *1 ?ZB H% s *g  ? ZB J% s *g  ? ZB L% s *g  ? ZB Z% s *g  ? RB $ s *D>w   $ s *`1"` c ,$D 0 ;+(23 $ s *x"1"`d,$D 0 7-(2 $ 0l&1 ,$ 0 KTrue positive = 48 23 $ 0L*1` ) ,$  0 GTrue negative = 28 2 $ 0.1c  ] ,$  0 KFalse negative = 12 23 $ 021` ),$ 0 IFalse positive = 12 2 \% s *41"` tW ,$D  0 7-(2 ]% s *:1"`tW,$D 0 ;+(23 d% 0-1 t  _/Positive tests = true positive + false positive0 20 e% 0XB1G _/Negative tests = true negative + false negative0 20 h% 0|F1 t ,$ 0 5+ 2 j% 0lJ1t,$ 0 5+ 2H $ 0޽h ? 33**___PPT10).im+WD'' `= @B D?'' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*f%%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*h%%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*\%%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*g%%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*j%%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*]%%(+0+0+$0 ++0+$0 ++0+$0 ++0+$0 ++0+$0 ++0+$0 ++0+\%0 ++0+]%0 ++0+h%0 ++0+j%0 +W  0 $(S(  ( $( s * tY,$D 0 #( s **g ,$D 0 "( s *) t ,$D  0 !( s *}*g,$D  0~ ( s *1 `}  1  ( 0p1 :,$ 0 ODisease present$0(23LB ( c $D` P`LB  ( c $D PLB  ( c $D P   ( 0Բ1 H:,$ 0 JDisease absent 0(2LB  ( c $D   LB ( c $D  ( 0(1`P,$ 0 I Test positive 0(2 ( 0N0 P ,$ 0 I Test negative 0(2LB ( c $D LB ( c $D PLB ( c $D LB ( c $DPP  ( 01`( ,$ 0 M True positive$0(23 ( 0p1 H ,$ 0 I True negative 0(2 ( 01`H ,$ 0 JFalse positive 0(2 ( 01 ,$  0 NFalse negative$0(23 ( 0x1,$  0 STP + FP00(23 ( 01pj ,$  0 cFN + TN@0(233 ( 01V P ,$ 0 (Positive predictive value = TP/(TP + FP)@)0(2%33" ( 01,$ 0 (Negative predictive value = TN/(FN + TN)J)0 2 33H ( 0޽h ? ̙33DD___PPT10D+MXDIB' 0= @B DB' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* (%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* (D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* (D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*!(%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*"(%(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*#(%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$(%(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =+4 8?dCB0-#ppt_w/2BCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_yBCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*#(%(+h+0+(0 ++0+ (0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 ++0+(0 +  0   @ (  R  s * tYR  s **g R  s *) t R  s *}*g~  s *2 `}  2   02 : ODisease present$0(23LB  c $D` P`LB  c $D PLB  c $D P   0X 2 H: JDisease absent 0(2LB  c $D * LB  c $D   0P2`P I Test positive 0(2  02 P  I Test negative 0(2LB  c $D LB  c $D PLB @ c $D LB  c $DPg   02=  B48$0(23  02p# Sj  >28 0(2  0!2P  >12 0(2  0|%2p( j  B12$0(23  0P)2 N6000(23  0,2pj  B40$0(23  0T.2V P  g'Positive predictive value = 48/60 = 80%$(0(2(3  042 q'Negative predictive value = 28/40 = 70%.(0 2'3H  0޽h ? ̙33y___PPT10Y+D=' `= @B +}  0 $(  r  S =2 `}  2 r  S >2 ` 2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i. /^+D=' `= @B +  0 0(  x  c $F2 `}  2 x  c $XG2 ` 2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i. /^+D=' `= @B +$  0 $(  r  S N2 `}  2 r  S O2 ` 2 H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.CP0  0 0(  x  c $"  `}  "  x  c $  `   H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.CP0  0 0(  x  c $V2 `}  2 x  c $W2 `  2 H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.CPD 0 [S`#(  X  0<Vp }U* W  #""<]  F <Lf2 ?"` W* W R< @` G <Lo2 ?"`~W W R< @` H < x2 ?"`)W~W R< @` I <2 ?"`W)W R< @` J <2 ?"`}WW R< @` P <Ē2 ?"` W* W R< @` Q <̛2 ?"`~W W R< @` R <Ԥ2 ?"`)W~W R< @` S <ܭ2 ?"`W)W R< @` T <2 ?"`}WW R< @` Z <2 ?"` U* W R< @` [ <2 ?"`~U W R< @` \ <2 ?"`)U~W R< @` ] <2 ?"`U)W R< @` ^ < 2 ?"`}UW R< @` d <2? U* U R< @` e <@2?~U U R< @` f <DE?)U~U R< @` g < E?U)U R< @` h <E?}UU R< @``B i 0o ?}U* UZB j s *1 ?}U* U`B k 0o ?}W* W`B l 0o ?}U}W`B n 0o ?* U* WZB o s *1 ?}W* WZB p s *1 ?}W* WZB x s *1 ?UWZB y s *1 ?)U)WZB z s *1 ?~U~WZB { s *1 ? U W  0@EY` ; Box to drag 2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +D 0 [S#$(  X  0<0 @p <)  $ #""<)   <@&E ?"` )  R< @`  </E ?"`   R< @`  <T8E ?"`  R< @`  <pAE ?"`I   R< @`  <HJE ?"` I  R< @`   <SE ?"`)  R< @`   <DE ?"`   R< @`   <LeE ?"`   R< @`   <|nE ?"`I  R< @`   <wE ?"`I  R< @`  <E ?"`) R< @`  <E ?"`  R< @`  <E ?"`   R< @`  <E ?"`I  R< @`  <E ?"`I R< @`  <E?<) R< @`  <E? < R< @`  <ĿE? <  R< @`  <E?I<  R< @`  <E?<I R< @``B  0o ?<)<ZB  s *1 ?)`B  0o ? ) `B  0o ?< `B  0o ?)<) ZB  s *1 ?)ZB  s *1 ? ) ZB  s *1 ?I<I ZB   s *1 ? < ZB ! s *1 ? < ZB " s *1 ?<  # 0EY` ; Box to drag 2 H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.im+D=' `= @B +<  0 c[(  R  s * If R  s **g R  s *6 I R  s *}*g~  s *]E `}  E   00E : ODisease present$0(23LB  c $D` P`LB  c $D PLB  c $D P   0pE H: JDisease absent 0(2LB  c $D * LB  c $D   0E`P I Test positive 0(2  0E P  I Test negative 0(2LB  c $D LB  c $D PLB @ c $D LB  c $DPg   0E=  B44$0(23  0Ep# Sj  >27 0(2  0lEP  =6 0(2  0Fp( j  A3$0(23  0DF N5000(23  0 Fpj  B30$0(23  0Fc t]  g'Positive predictive value = 44/50 = 88%$(0(2(3  0PF) b#  q'Negative predictive value = 27/30 = 90%.(0 2'3  0F I k;How many patients would be given treatment unnecessarily? < 2<  0pF @  5N = 6 2H  0޽h ? ̙33y___PPT10Y+D=' `= @B + 0 z0(  0d 0 c $,P   n 0 s *č, 09   This is usually presented as a table. Disease present or absent must be determined by some means and this is usually called the  gold or  reference standard. PPV answers the question about how likely a positive test is to represent disease. H 0 0e ? ̙33J 0 PZ(  ^  S ,P     c $`,    P<Consider a population of 100 people of whom 60 have disease.H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.Y 0 (  ^  S ,P     c $DӍ,    For most tests a negative result is not always obtained when there is no disease. Some cases have a positive result, even if no disease is present. These are therefore, false positives, as the test is incorrect. $H  0e ? 3380___PPT10. E 0 ((  ^  S ,P     c $܍,     H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.(  0 8(  d  c $,P     s *ߍ,    "In practice tests are not perfect, so not all diseased patients will be picked up by the test, in this case 48 are true. However, if the test is negative for all cases without disease, then all the positive tests show disease.$AH  0e ? 3380___PPT10.sA  0 [S(  d  c $,P   G  s *l,    In the ideal world a diagnostic test will give a positive result with disease and a negative result if no disease. So for our 100 patients there are 60 positive results and 40 negative results.H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.   0 .(  d  c $,P     s * ,    Equally for most tests a positive result is not always obtained when there is disease. Some cases have a negative result, even if disease is present. These are therefore, false negatives, as the test is incorrect. $H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.sA 0 Pa(  d  c $,P     s *, 09   K7Putting the numbers in the table gives the PPV and NPV H  0e ? ̙33$ 0 p4(  d  c $,P     s *,     H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.Y$ 0 4(  d  c $,P     s *x,     H  0e ? 3380___PPT10.Y 0 a(  d  c $,P     s * , 09   K7Putting the numbers in the table gives the PPV and NPV H  0e ? ̙33 0   ((   ^   S ,P      c $,     H   0e ? 3380___PPT10.C/r jR z& h  q&t) )w@z-e`|s$'7`10}Hމ?`` )+-#CD1Oh+'0>--'--%--'--%--'--%--'--%--'--%))--'--%22--'--%<<[--'--%EE[--'--%OO[--'--%bb[--'--%kk[--'--%uu[--'@"Arial-. 32 h+ 60 people .-@"Arial-. 32 n+ with disease.-@"Arial-. 2 h] 40 people .-@"Arial-. 2 n]without disease.---%XX_--'@"Arial-. 3f2 hTotal .-@"Arial-. 3f2 n population .-@"Arial-. 3f2 s= 100 .-՜.+,0     On-screen ShowUni of Nottingham  ArialSymbolTimes New RomanDefault DesignSlide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6(Positive and negative predictive value (Positive and negative predictive value Positive predictive valueNegative predictive valueNew situationsNew situationsNew situations Slide 14 Slide 15(Positive and negative predictive value  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide TitlesRoot EntrydO)П"F@Current User2SummaryInformation(lCPowerPoint Document(_ntzmgtntzmgtRoot EntrydO)aoՔe@Current User)SummaryInformation(lCPowerPoint Document(  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~_mhsmhszmgtRoot EntrydO)Current UserSummaryInformation(lCPowerPoint Document(DocumentSummaryInformation8