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Baldwin Professor of International Economics Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva World Economy Annual Lecture Nottingham 22 June 2006: Y5   33___PPT10i.&/++D=' = @B +" @8 (    f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   !   xP 0e0e?Rectangle 2   UIntroduction & Plan     x Q 0e0e?Rectangle 3~ ZR___PPT94, vTopic: Final steps to global free trade. Bhagwati s paths. Define: global free trade. Bold prediction & caveats. Outline Political economy of liberalisation. Structured historical narrative. Staging post 2010. The final 2 steps. WTO s job.Z) H  w  )Hw p 3380___PPT10.~ڛ"  (    f@R ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   "   x`S 0e0e?Rectangle 2   V6 stylised facts  J   xT 0e0e?Rectangle 3f B:___PPT9 4The GATT process started when tariffs were very high worldwide; Rich nations liberalised much more than poor nations, in both the GATT process (i.e. bound rates) and RTAs; The liberalisation focused on industrial goods in which two-way trade in similar goods is prevalent; The process took 40 years; Some sectors were excluded entirely and others experienced much less tariff cutting; Regional tariff cutting went hand-in-hand with multilateral liberalisation. " Z P 3380___PPT10.!"  kc@K(    fU ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*      xV 0e0e?Rectangle 2   SPolitical Economy     xW 0e0e?Rectangle 3  Status quo tariff. Tariff balances supply & demand for protection. Supply = marginal cost curve (marginal welfare damage). Demand = marginal utility curve (marginal benefit to special interests).   3380___PPT10.~ڛ"$& %|%`++d%(    fT ?6Slide Number Placeholder 2@  l*   %   zV 0e0e?Rectangle 55   WProtection demand  7z D  C ,Group 115"D  $  ^@ABCDEFQ.RUVWX5%?@`Freeform 79M % P@n ?Rectangle 80"@> \ N    & hm ?Rectangle 81 a  ~quantity0 GG   pB ' @?Line 82 pB ( @?Line 83(  ) hj ?Rectangle 84Dv {euros0GG   * Z@k ?Text Box 855u cSG   + Zk ?Text Box 86] 9  cDG    S @ABUCDEFQ.RUVWX1?U@UUFreeform 76$O  S @AB$CDEFQ.RUVWX1?$@$$Freeform 77nB  F?Line 87B B   ZY ?Text Box 88  PwBGOG     ZZ ?Text Box 89f M  eTG  hB   @?Line 90UdU   Z\ ?Text Box 91d(  cPG  tB   L?Line 92X   `^ 8c?Text Box 93g#n oaG    Z` ?Text Box 94V9- = fP G  hB  @?Line 95   Za ?Text Box 96 {  cPG  tB  L?Line 97X  `c 8c?Text Box 98Pg#7 oaG    Zd ?Text Box 999-  fP G  r @ dƈ 1?AutoShape 100fRB  T   r @ dg 1?AutoShape 1014 c B  T     \0 ?Text Box 102 FB  hT G  z p C ,Group 116" B " ZԔ?Line 117B # ZԔ?Line 118p  P@2 ?Text Box 119k T4GO    J`3 ?Text Box 120"@j }Protection demandG  vB  N8c?Line 125 u   j@5 ?Rectangle 126^ {  {euros0GG  |B  T1?Line 1276 Sb}  P 7 ?Text Box 128| T.GG  |B  T1?Line 129 }  P9 ?Text Box 1302[ bT G  2   ` : 1?Oval 131   N   2 ! `@; 1?Oval 132YP  N    3380___PPT10.ص"* T*L*224*(    f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 2@  l*     h 1?Rectangle 44 ]]  N     HA ??Object 2"`      \@ABCDEFQ.RUVWX5%?@`Freeform 3.  N ?Rectangle 4"@  N     f ?Rectangle 5<   ~quantity0 GG   fB  >?Line 66( fB   >?Line 7    f ?Rectangle 8kp {euros0GG     X ?Text Box 9 cSG     Z ?Text Box 10g e O  cDG  hB   @?Line 11     _ж_ж1?Rectangle 12  N     Z ?Text Box 13  cPG  nB  F?Line 14  tB  L?Line 15 tB  L?Line 16k k  # ` _ж_ж1?Rectangle 17"@kS  N     `! 8c?Text Box 185 oaG    `" 8c?Text Box 19n+ obG    `# 8c?Text Box 20p ocG    `$ 8c?Text Box 21N  odG  B @ d1?Line 22zB  d1?Line 23  `l 8c?Text Box 26r xY  ogG    Z' ?Text Box 27  fP G    Z( ?Text Box 28  Pw BGOG  r  b) 1?AutoShape 38. l  N     Z* ?Text Box 39 hT G  tB  L?Line 40h   h, 1?Rectangle 42  N    ! h- 1?Rectangle 43R  N    " Z/ ?Text Box 37  PwBGOG   # `` 8c?Text Box 241  ofG   $ ` 8c?Text Box 25n"  oeG  x p %C *Group 45"/> "B 1 XԔ?Line 46B 2 XԔ?Line 47p & N ?Text Box 48 T4GO   ' h  ?Rectangle 51  {euros0GG   ( H@ ?Text Box 58D'J }Protection SupplyG  tB ) L8c?Line 59- +% *  z  0e0e?Rectangle 60   WProtection supply  zB + R1?Line 54 CC , N ?Text Box 55( bT G  2 - ^  1?Oval 57P   N   2 . ^@ 1?Oval 56iC N    / N` ?Text Box 61  $Nave opt l tariffG  zB 0@ R1?Line 62 3380___PPT10.ص"p  (     f] ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   x p  C *Group 52" B   XԔ?Line 53B   XԔ?Line 54p  NR ?Text Box 55 T4GO    H } ?Text Box 56"@9  }Protection demandG    H> ?Text Box 59u Protection Supply (unil.)G  tB  L8c?Line 615 S   h̝ ?Rectangle 62) F  {euros0GG  ,   z= 0e0e?Rectangle 65   ^Juggernaut: demi-cycle 1     z_ 0e0e?Rectangle 66   6Political equilibrium tariff balances S & D for protection. Reciprocal trade talks re-align political economy forces inside each participating nation. Protection supply shifts up. Exporters become anti-protectionists.* & & zB  R8c?Line 684  tB  L8c?Line 69? Q  H$?Text Box 72]) I Protection Supply (recip.)G  zB  R1?Line 732 v v   Nh ?Text Box 74 6 pT G  zB  R1?Line 754 ff  Np ?Text Box 76 T.GG  2  ^q 1?Oval 70 -  N   2  ^s 1?Oval 71)  N    3380___PPT10.ص" $ (  $ $ fd ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   , $  z@u 0e0e?Rectangle 10   ^Juggernaut: demi-cycle 2   $  z`v 0e0e?Rectangle 11   ~Politically optimal tariff depends of size of import competing sector. Walrasian entry, n. Number of import competing firms rise with tariff. FE curve. Same for export sector, but can t plot.<G  e Ge x j $C *Group 21" O B  $ RԔ?Line 22|B $ LԔ?Line 23j $ Nw ?Text Box 24 2  fTariff,T     $ Hy ?Text Box 25U ]5<  _n   p $  H@ABxCDEFQRUVWX8c? K\^x@  \xxFreeform 26 2   $ Nz ?Text Box 27  vTo2 GO    $ N| ?Text Box 28 &:) vno2 GO    $ h } 1?Rectangle 29i Z  N     $ N@~ ?Text Box 31e3L bFE G   3380___PPT10.ص" ^V(>(  ( ( f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   # (  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WJuggernaut effect   (  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3   $Fold supply & demand into GFOC. Solution to govt first order condition. GFOC rises with n since politically optimal T rises with n. More to protect on margin.T ( <   (< v j (C (Group 4" O B ( PԔ?Line 5zB ( JԔ?Line 6j ( L` ?Text Box 7 2  fTariff,T     ( FZ ?Text Box 8U ]5<  _n   n (  F@ABxCDEFQRUVWX8c? K\^x@  \xxFreeform 9 2   ( N ?Text Box 10  vTo2 GO    ( N ?Text Box 11 &:) vno2 GO    ( h@ 1?Rectangle 12i Z  N     ( N` ?Text Box 13 nEo*     ( N ?Text Box 14lS bFE G  p (  H@ABCDEFQRUVWX8c?m/n,,t@  n,Freeform 15 g.  ( H` ?Text Box 16n k GFOC (unil)  G  2 ( X@ ?Oval 17]3~ N    3380___PPT10.ص"V  "",(  , , f`I ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   # ,  xJ 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WJuggernaut effect   ,  xK 0e0e?Rectangle 3   vStart: unilaterally politically optimal tariff, To. Reciprocal trade talks shift GFOC down. Lower opt l T for any given n (exporters are now in the game). Juggernaut rolls forward to E f\ ?   1*?   , NL ?Text Box 18 ]A   B , d1?Line 19Mx j ,C *Group 20"  B !, RԔ?Line 21|B ", LԔ?Line 22j , NO ?Text Box 23  fTariff,T      , H ?Text Box 24 z  _n   p  ,  H@AB_CDEFQRUVWX8c?83 Cw^_@  C__Freeform 25 +   , N" ?Text Box 26  vTo2 GO    , N# ?Text Box 27jQ nEo*     , N$ ?Text Box 28L 3 bFE G  p ,  H@ABC]DEFQRUVWX8c?]Xv@  ]]Freeform 29%   , H& ?Text Box 30 l GFOC (recip)  G  p ,  H@ABCDEFQRUVWX8c?p9x,,t@  x,Freeform 31 `~  , H( ?Text Box 32.] k GFOC (unil)  G   , H) ?Text Box 33"@S  fE   G  tB , L?Line 34Yg XY2 , X+ ?Oval 35"@=,w N   B ,@ d1?Line 36$B ,@ X8c?Line 37\c2 , X@. ?Oval 38, N   2 , X`/ ?Oval 39"@p! N    , N0 ?Text Box 40M 4 vT12 GO  tB , L?Line 41 tB , L?Line 42 B , N`3 ?Text Box 43> %  xT 2 GO  tB , L?Line 45/ , N@5 ?Text Box 46-wK  ]B   2 , X`6 ?Oval 47;_ N   2  , X7 ?Oval 48_ N    3380___PPT10.ص"   (  &&0 (  0 0 f  ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   # 0  x@ 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WJuggernaut effect   0  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 3\   If all exports covered by the reciprocity, politically optimal tariff is zero. Could take decades crush the anti-trade forces (import competing firms) & build pro-trade forces (export firms).  B 0 d1?Line 34 e x j 0C *Group 35" * B %0 RԔ?Line 36|B &0 LԔ?Line 37j 0 N ?Text Box 38:N ! fTariff,T     0 H ?Text Box 39 6 _n   p  0  H@AB_CDEFQRUVWX8c?83 Cw^_@  C__Freeform 40k`    0 N ?Text Box 415< 8  vTo2 GO    0 N ?Text Box 42NW nEo*     0 N ?Text Box 43 bFE G  p  0  H@ABCDEFQRUVWX8c?[n`$@  $Freeform 44O  0 H ?Text Box 45#Ai j GFOC (MTN)  G  p 0  H@ABCDEFQRUVWX8c?p9x,,t@  x,Freeform 46gO   0 H@> ?Text Box 47N 5 k GFOC (unil)  G  2 0 X`? ?Oval 48 7  N   tB 0 L?Line 49 2 0 X: ?Oval 50 N   B 0@ d1?Line 51 c B 0 X8c?Line 52U 2 0 X ?Oval 53k   N   2 0 X@R ?Oval 54{ 7  N   tB 0 L?Line 55vB 0@ d1?Line 56 F B 0 d1?Line 57 EEH 2 0 X# ?Oval 58{ c  N   B 0@ d1?Line 59H  H 2 0 X% ?Oval 600 cu  N   2 0 X& ?Oval 61) {n  N   B 0 d1?Line 62d  B  0@ d1?Line 63 { 2 !0 X`) ?Oval 64   N   2 "0 X* ?Oval 65 y  N    #0 `+ ?Text Box 66d d? rEfinal*   2 $0 X, ?Oval 67 ) M  N    3380___PPT10.ص"  @4(  4 4 f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*    4  xP0e0e?Rectangle 2   S Domino effect  T 4  z 0e0e?Rectangle 38  Demi-cycle I: Idiosyncratic formation or deepening of a trade bloc re-aligns the political economy forces inside non-member nations. Pro-membership political economy forces: Non-member exporters: Trade diversion (fresh loses) & Trade Creation (lost opportunity). Anti-membership political economy forces: If deeper, may resist more. If export sectors are politically larger than import competing sectors. Demi-cycle II: if a new member joins,  forces for inclusion get stronger in non-member nations.j Y *   Y*  3380___PPT10.ص"  >6`8(  8 8 f  ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   # 8  x@. 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WRTB unilateralism   8  xТ 0e0e?Rectangle 3  FCompetition for out-sourcing jobs and investment drive nations to unilaterally cut tariffs. Re-aligns political economy forces in DCs. Unbundling of manufacturing process (i.e. fragmentation, vertical differentiation, slicing up value added chain) is key. Destroys import substitution (scale, competition) Makes export-led industrialisation more successful (foreign technology from MNC/buyers, ready market). Finer division of labour may mean no import competing industry. MNC role may imply imports mostly re-exported. Importers are also exporters => no political economy conflict.\ Z Zo Z? Zo?G  3380___PPT10.ص"2  <r(  < < f Ѣ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   # <  x@Ң 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WAncillary effects   <  x`Ӣ 0e0e?Rectangle 3  (Intra-sectoral special interest politics. Melitz model & reciprocal liberalisation: big firms win, small firms lose. Add Mancur Olsen s Asymmetry on political organisation & juggernaut effect works well on intra-industry trade. Losers lobby harder. Home market magnification effect. Industry becomes more footloose, not less, as trade barriers fall. Competition for industry becomes more fierce as tariffs fall globally. (Small preference margins can matter a lot).T*  7  *7  3380___PPT10.ص" WO@7(  @ @ fԢ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 4@  l*   & @  xբ 0e0e?Rectangle 2   ZHistorical Narrative   @  x֢ 0e0e?Rectangle 3  3 key effects: Jugger (MTNs), Domino (RTAs), RTB (unilateralism).  Empirical evidence intended to  demonstrate usefulness of the 3 key effects. Line sketch. Can t pretend to explain everything. "   P 3380___PPT10.ص"< D|(  D D fע ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   & D  x9 0e0e?Rectangle 2   ZHistorical Narrative  y D  xG 0e0e?Rectangle 3$  =1947-1958. GATT starts. Juggernaut works but stops in 1950s. > 2   2> z D RA??Picture 5@:  3380___PPT10.rH"I  H(  H H fD ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   - H  xQ 0e0e?Rectangle 2   aDominos trigger juggernauts   H  xD 0e0e?Rectangle 3   K1958-1972. EEC formation: Europe domino effect phase I. Kennedy Round. RTAs: US Auto Pact & EEC, EFTA. MTNs, RTAs & unilateralism proceed in tandem. Liberalisation begets liberalisation. ^  Z Z- Zu Z -u   H ^[A??Picture 4g $Z rB H J1?Line 5 xB H P8c?Line 6;;2 H \٢ 1?Oval 7"Z N   xB  H@ Pp?Line 8ET 3380___PPT10.0>&" 0(L(  L L f@ۢ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    L  x`ܢ 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 1973-1985     L  xݢ 0e0e?Rectangle 3a  EEC first enlargement and EEC-EFTA FTAs, create another incentive for an MTN (Tokyo Round, 73-79). Stagflation postpones all forms of trade liberalisation. Z z L RA??Picture 8@v< rB L J1?Line 9a  L T` 1?Text Box 10S cTokyo    3380___PPT10.0>&"B  P(  P P f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    P  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 1986-1990     P  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  vJuggernaut & domino re-engage. Single European Act, 1986. US-Canada FTA talks start, 1986. Uruguay Round starts, 1986.w Zww z P RA??Picture 7|  3380___PPT10.0>&"T @T(  T T f@ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    T  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 1990-1994     T  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  REuropean spaghetti bowl forms. USSR collapse. North American spaghetti bowls forms. US-Mexico FTA triggers massive domino effect. NAFTA, Mercosur, dozens of spoke-spoke FTAs, long queue for US bilaterals.T  & y &y  3380___PPT10.0>&"X `X(  X X f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    X  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 1994-2000    " X  x@ 0e0e?Rectangle 3  VEuropean spaghetti bowl advances. Euro-Meds, etc. North American spaghetti bowls advances. NAFTA crushes Mexican anti-trade forces. Mexico  sells its politically optimal tariff cuts in over 40 bilaterals. Japan, EU & US.j"  ) s  ")s   3380___PPT10.0>&"  \(  \ \ f@ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    \  x@" 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 1986-2000    > \  x`# 0e0e?Rectangle 3  r,RTB unilateralism in East Asia (circa 1985).- --  \ Z$ 1?Rectangle 7 N   z \ RA??Picture 6- \ ``& 1?Rectangle 8y %Reductions in applied MFN tariffs on 6& %gG & rB \ JԔ?Line 9{1 1   \ Z( 1?Text Box 10'  j Asian crisis      3380___PPT10.0>&"; `{(  ` ` f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   , `  x) 0e0e?Rectangle 2   `MTNs, RTAs & unilateralism   `  x * 0e0e?Rectangle 3  (In 1990s, as in the 1960s & 1980s, all the  isms progress hand-in-hand. No evidence that  isms are substitutes.r rr  3380___PPT10.@|V" d(  d d f+ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    d  x, 0e0e?Rectangle 2   O 2000-2006    \ d  x- 0e0e?Rectangle 3  East Asian noodle bowl starts. China s approach to ASEAN for FTA triggers domino effect in East Asia. ACFTA, AKFTA, AJFTA, many bilaterals. No significant regionalism to date, but lots promised. Western Hemisphere spaghetti bowl advances. US opposition to FTAs crushed by NAFTA; US follows promiscuous FTA strategy. European FTAs multiply, spokes start to proliferate FTAs.tf Z] Z, ZM Z: Zf],M:v  3380___PPT10.0>&" RJh2(  h h f/ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   # h  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 2   WStaging Post 2010   h  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  LEurope, North America and East Asia:  fuzzy ,  leaky trade blocs. North America & Europe done deals; between & within near-duty-free status (major flows). Many East Asian FTAs may have problems (typically south-south), but Japan-Malaysia, & 4 other big ASEANs very likely to be implemented. Rest due to domino and RTB unilateralism. Prediction: Applied tariffs will be near zero for world s major trade flows around 2010.jC Y  * Y CY*Y  3380___PPT10.0>&" 5-l(  l l f@ ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    l  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 2   NFractals     l  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  Definition:  A rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced/size copy of the whole. World trade system made of 3 fuzzy, leaky trade blocs each of which is made up of fuzzy leaky sub-blocs. The point: Solution to one is the solution to all (roughly).H HH  3380___PPT10.0>&"  p(  p p f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    p  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   JPECS  e p  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  How PECS fixed the European spaghetti bowl and why. Spaghetti bowl problems: Multi ROOs (hard to do biz in spokes) Bilateral cumulation (hinders efficient sourcing in spokes) 1997, EU set up PECS: imposed common set of ROOs on EU, EFTA & CEECs. Imposed diagonal cumulation.TN b  M NbM  3380___PPT10.o%"   @t(  t t f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    t  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   JPECS  r t  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  Spaghetti bowl is not by accident. Pair-specific political economy forces => pair-specific policy; especially hub & spoke. Unbundling & off-shoring Former beneficiaries of complexity downsized and off-shored from EU. Some EU firms set up in spokes and are now harmed by the complexity ( us becomes  them ). EU firms push EU to tame the tangle of FTAs.  Spaghetti bowl as building blocs Complexity & unbundling create new politically economy force Push system the short distance from near-free trade with matrix of bilaterals to free trade  lake. Multilateralise the FTAs. Domino effect in ROOs/Cumulation.# PX P P Pa P~ P" P#Xa~"b  3380___PPT10.o%" `x(  x x f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    x  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2   S 2 final steps  | x  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3  *Penultimate: Multilateralise the spaghetti bowl FTAs in North America (when US firms become victims of the complexity). NAFTA ROOs already popular. Diagonal cumulation is next. East Asia, much more difficult. Might be RTB unilateralism makes ROOs/Cumulation irrelevant. ASEAN ROOs already popular.Tx 9  Z x9 Z+  3380___PPT10.o%"M |(  | | f ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*    |  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 2   S 2 final steps   |  x! 0e0e?Rectangle 3  GUltimate As global unbundling continues, SBBB pressures will mount. Impractical to do a PECS given PECS, NAFTA & ASEAN ROOs. Alternative is ITA-like agreement with coverage of most industrial goods. Zero-for-zero. >     3380___PPT10.o%" (    f" ?6Slide Number Placeholder 3@  l*   &   x# 0e0e?Rectangle 2   ZWTO s role    N   x$ 0e0e?Rectangle 3  &Penultimate: not much, should study impact of PECS on non-members more closely. The final step could be in WTO, but not like DDA. ITA was much more like old-fashioned GATT Rounds. Much less emphasis on S&D. Principle supplier ideas. 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