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Chart MSGraph.Chart.80*Microsoft Graph Chart/ 0LDArial1 000q 0@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` tl` kK    '$@%&')(*#+,#-./0123g4678W9;M<=>?X@BSCDZEFGH$IKLNOP/QS)TVWZ[\$]_`abcde ?"$9mmө *VJJ"$ѱeK 8d J"$t+%M+d:tub 0AA ff̙@wʚ;ʚ;g4JdJd}( 0Hppp@ <4ddddT^ 0 q <4BdBdT 080___PPT10 pp?  %O  =1KThe Changing Place of Britain in the World Economy: a Long-Term PerspectiveLL(ZNick Crafts Leverhulme Globalisation Lecture, ԭ, November 19, 2008 [P O E4ThemesRelative Economic Decline De-Industrialisation Regional Disparities Adjusting to Changing Comparative Advantage Policy Implications@(6Real GDP/Person7Relative Economic DeclinelWas most apparent from the 1950s through the 1970s Was associated with a period of protectionism and weak competition Has possibly been reversed in the recent past Britain s time as the  workshop of the world has gone; de-industrialisation is a fact of life and there is a new international division of labour\7PZ-"c7\:(Shares of World Manufacturing Production))(;$Shares of World Manufactured Exports%%(<De-IndustrialisationCCommon experience of advanced economies and has been continuous in Britain since the late 1960s Reflects income elasticities of demand, productivity growth, comparative advantage and trade policy Accelerated with move away from high tariffs and then Thatcherism Structure of employment has changed greatly over the long runtD@'9\ 7&p @Employment Shares (%)A'Detailed Employment Shares (1) Percent( ( B 'Detailed Employment Shares (2) Percent(( ( F!#Reversing Relative Economic Decline$$$Required improved incentive structures to improve TFP and reduce NAIRU TFP gaps have been much reduced and Beveridge Curve shifts in@k The Beveridge Curve ^,#Reversing Relative Economic Decline$$$Required improved incentive structures to improve TFP and reduce NAIRU TFP gaps have been much reduced and Beveridge Curve shifts in Key ingredient was increasing competition in product markets Openness in both capital and trade flows matters Realising gains from trade is important&PZk H"Trade Exposure [(X+M)/GDP] (%)(I#%The Payoff from Globalisation (% GDP)&&$L$UK Comparative AdvantagezHas changed markedly over time Victorian staples were neither high-tech nor human-capital intensive but today s manufactured exports are often both World market share in services in now twice that in manufactures Responding to these changes requires both sectoral and spatial adjustment Agglomeration plays a key role>PZ(>7M%>Revealed Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing: Top 3 sectors??( 4Lancashire Textiles and Globalization (Leunig, 2005)5&$TLancashire a high wage industry: 6 x India and Japan in 1910 But continued to dominate world trade (60% world market share in cottons in 1910) Unit costs lower than India or Japan even before adjusting for output quality Lancashire flourished because of agglomeration benefits ..... its productivity exceeded other British locations by 33%U@( O_@P&8Revealed Comparative Advantage, 2006: Top 6, All Sectors99(&Regional Implications of Globalization''$.Contraction of tradables that lose comparative advantage hurts East Anglia (then), West Midlands (now) Growth of invisibles boosts London (then and now) and South East and East Anglia (now) Globalization undermines North West which has been in long term relative economic decline since mid-19th centurynPZ#qZOCN  6Regional GDP/Person (% deviation from British average)7 # 6Regional GDP/Person (% deviation from British average)(7 #'2Correlations When One City has Higher Productivity33 ( Equilibrium Regional DisparitiesNThese regional differences are consistent with an equilibrium & . no market failure Real earnings for each skill level converge quickly across regions (Duranton & Monastiriotis, 2002) Can only be eliminated if productivity gap is closed If that is impossible, best to let favoured city get bigger4@<!q, yR'"Sub-Optimal Size of British Cities##(BOptimal locations for big cities today different from mid-19th century Successful 19th century cities expanded dramatically but not allowed today; (Blackburn and Preston vs. Oxford and Cambridge) Both expansion and contraction distorted by policy interventions Key symptom of city that is too small; high urban land valuesBC@#<  Death of Distance?$Transport and communications costs melt away: all locations equally good, so go where labour is cheap Greatly exaggerated; ICT is rearranging geography not abolishing it Agglomeration benefits still matter a lot Offshoring offers gains from trade in services not decimation of British economyf%PZf0 F G""Wage Levels, 2008 (New York = 100)(#$0 Top 10 Offshoring Locations   81) India 2) China 3) Malaysia 4) Thailand 5) BrazilL9@2      I 6) Indonesia 7) Chile 8) Philippines 9) Bulgaria 10) Mexico hI@2  Offshoring: Evidence  14 million US service sector jobs  vulnerable (96 million not) Offshoring of business services grew 20-fold in 5 years to 2007; typical cost saving 20%-40% Offshoring works for routine activities where performance is easy to verify and face to face interaction is not needed Payroll services, IT services, transaction processing, telemarketing etc It is win-win when markets work wellPP-!  '',@ T  London as a Financial CentreAgglomeration where size matters Benefits from thick labour markets and importance of proximity for deal-making Clerical jobs will increasingly be offshored This will strengthen the core business\@< G 9 (./UK Asset Management: Core Business OXERA (2005)0#$ /-UK Asset Management: Back-Office OXERA (2005).!$ S(Agglomeration EconomiesMExternal economies of scale from localisation and urbanisation economies Increase with city size (though not without limit) Much bigger in services: financial services = 0.25, manufacturing = 0.04 (Graham, 2007) Central to British competitive advantage under globalisation Are foregone if transport inadequate or city size restrictedNPP#.1( 0T) Welfare LossY*#Planning Laws Need a Major Re-Think$$$UK is failing to take full advantage of the opportunities presented by globalisation Spatial adjustment is severely constrained Planning restrictions imply massive distortions in land use: housing/agricultural land values 400/1 (Cheshire & Sheppard, 2005); office space more expensive in Manchester than in New York (Cheshire & Hilber, 2008) Local Communities, especially in the South East, can and should be incentivised to want development@2x )<B"IlZ+ ConclusionsFPositive response to globalisation has been important in reversing relative economic decline Regional disparities are an inherent part of this and per se do not signal need for policy intervention Flexible adjustment to globalisation was the hallmark of 19th-century Britain and needs to be facilitated in 21st-century BritainG@(";17$ 2 /    # + ,0123589=>?CDEGJKNO Q!U"V$W%[&\'_(>  0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> ph(    6  `}  T Click to edit Master title style! !  0p  `  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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M0.9  @`  Bq?p  M2.8  @`   BXz? p  M6.4  @`   B?  N11.8  @`   Bt?T  Q Agriculture   @`   B? L2008 @`   B?p L1979 @`  B? p L1951 @`  B ?  L1911 @`  B?T P  @`ZB  s *Ԕ ?TZB  s *1 ?T  ZB  s *1 ?Tl l ZB  s *Ԕ ?TN N ZB   s *Ԕ ?N ZB ! s *Ԕ ?  N ZB " s *Ԕ ?ppN ZB # s *Ԕ ?N ZB $ s *Ԕ ?N ZB , s *Ԕ ?`B  0o ?TZB C s *Ԕ ?TTN `B  0o ?TTH  0޽h ? 33IA___PPT10!.(D@+C@D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*W%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*W+  0 (  $R(  x  c $Hɡ}    T  R #""T ,$D  0  Bҡf?   M1.4 @`  Bۡf?p   M4.9 @`  BXf? p  M4.6 @`  Bf?  M4.1 @`  B`ߡf?T   ZMetal Manufactures @`   BD?   M2.8 @`   B ?p   M8.6 @`   B? p  N11.2 @`   B$?  M6.7 @`   B4$?T   S Engineering   @`  BD-?  M0.4 @`  B5?p  M2.9 @`  Bt?? p  M7.1 @`  B\H?  N12.4 @`  BLQ?T  [Textiles & Clothing @`  B s *Ԕ ?TT `B  0o ?TTH  0޽h ? 33IA___PPT10!.(D@+SD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*R%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*R+  0 6.@$Y(  x  c $`}    T Y #""T,$D  0  B`f?)  N12.7$ @`  Bf?p)  M5.6$ @`  B䮣f? ) p M1.7$ @`  BHf?)  M0.7$ @`  Bf?T)  NHealth @`   Bɣ?W )  M8.9$ @`   Bң?pW )  M5.8$ @`   Bܣ? W p)  M1.5$ @`   B?W )  M1.5$ @`   B?TW )  Q Education   @`  B?lW  N21.2$ @`  B?plW  M9.2$ @`  B ? lpW  M3.5$ @`  B?l W  M1.1$ @`  B8?TlW  eFinancial & Business Services @`  B(%?l L2008 @`  B-?pl L1979 @`  B/? pl L1951 @`  B`?? l L1911 @`  B8?Tl P  @`ZB  s *Ԕ ?TllZB  s *Ԕ ?TW W ZB  s *Ԕ ?T) ) `B  0o ?T`B  0o ?TTlZB  s *Ԕ ?ZB  s *Ԕ ?  ZB   s *Ԕ ?ppZB ! s *Ԕ ?`B " 0o ?ZB & s *Ԕ ?`B  0o ?T`B N 0o ?TlTH  0޽h ? 33IA___PPT10!.(D@+bD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*Y%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*Y+   0 `$P(  $r $ S % `    $ S % `<$ 0  H $ 0޽h ? 33___PPT10v.)Dpj+N*D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*$GD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$G%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*$GD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*$G%(+8+0+$0 +%  0  4-(  4 4  HDvo "<   `}   B 4 s *D GG,$D  0B 4 s *D GF,$D  002 4 CcJENG(JcJQ> `TÞ'`TcJ`TÞ'`TcJcJ'`TcJcJ"`mw ,$D 002 4 @CcJENG(JcJQ> `TÞ'`TcJ`TÞ'`TcJcJ'`TcJcJ"`z ! ,$D 0 4 <+#.<*4%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*4D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*4%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*4D' =%(D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* 4%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<* 4D' =%(D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* 4%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<* 4D' =%(D' =4@BB#BB%()))D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*4%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*4D' =+4 8?HCB4DBCBB*k3>'.<*4D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*4D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*4D' =%( D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*4%(D' =%( D' =4@BB#BB%()))D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*4%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*4D' =+4 8?HCB4DBCBB*k3>'.<*4D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_hB*Y3>B ppt_h<*4D' =+4 8?RCBBCB#ppt_wB*Y3>B ppt_w<*4D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*4%(++0+40 ++0+40 ++0+ 40 ++0+ 40 + ( 0 0\(  x  c $( `     c $ `<$ 0  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10x.)Dpj+M D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dt' =%(%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B BPB`B,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*GD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*G%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B BPB`B,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*GD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*G%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(+8+0+0 +  0 | t #, (  ,r , S $ `}   Z   /zR #, #"&::;::/ zR,$D  0 , Bdä?C  zR N56.8( @` , Bd̤?  C R N2000( @`  , BԤ?C z  N40.0( @`  , Bޤ?  C   N1960( @`  , BϤ?C z  N44.0( @`  , B? C  N1910( @`  , B`f?C iz N40.3( @` , Bf? iC  N1870( @` , Bf?C /zi N17.6( @` , B@f? /C i N1830( @``B , 0o ? /z/ZB , s *1 ? iziZB , s *1 ? zZB , s *1 ?  z ZB , s *1 ?  z `B , 0o ? RzR`B , 0o ? / RZB , s *1 ?C /C R`B , 0o ?z/zRH , 0޽h ? 33E=___PPT10.vF*+rD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*#,%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*#,+F  0  x 8 (  8r 8 S - `   ]  wc9  8 #""eddewc9 ,$D  0  8 B1? c9  N12.5  @`  8 B|=?w 9  Q 1960-2000    @`  8 B7? pc  N-2.7  @`  8 B,O?wp  Q 1910-1960    @`  8 BGf? cp M2.7  @` 8 B`f?w  p Q 1870-1910    @` 8 Bif? c  N38.7  @` 8 Brf?w  O1830-70  @``B 8 0o ?wcZB 8 s *1 ?w c ZB 8 s *1 ?wpcpZB 8 s *1 ?w c `B 8 0o ?w9 c9 `B 8 0o ?ww9 ZB 8 s *1 ?  9 `B 8 0o ?cc9  8 <xIT0,$ 0 YEBased on similar assumptions to HMT (2003) and Bradford et al. (2006)H 8 0޽h ? 33nf___PPT10F.vF+!D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*8D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8%(+8+0+80 +H  0 DP(  Dr D S 䋦 `    D S z `<$ 0  H D 0޽h ? 330(___PPT10.wF^+N*D' = @B D_' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*DD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*D%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*DD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*D%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*DD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*D%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*DD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*D%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D>D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*D>%(+8+0+D0 +   0 .L(  Lr L S 衦 `}    mg .L #""uttmg,$D 0 L B?W g i!Electrical & Electronic Equipment"" @` L B`f?G  W XOffice Machinery @` L Bܾf?7 G  S Rail & Ship   @` L BȦ? 7 T Iron & Steel   @` L B4Ѧ?W g  Q Aerospace   @` L B`ڦf?G W  WPharmaceuticals @` L B f?7 G   PTextiles   @` L B? 7  PTextiles   @`  L B?W3g  WPharmaceuticals @`  L BDf?G 3W  Q Aerospace   @`  L Bh f?73G  YAlcohol & Tobacco @`  L BP?37  S Rail & Ship   @`  L B?Wmg3 L2006  @` L B#f?G mW3 L1979  @` L B-f?7mG 3 L1937  @` L B6?m73 L1913  @``B L 0o ?mgmZB L s *1 ?3g3ZB L s *1 ? g ZB L s *1 ? g `B L 0o ?g`B L 0o ?mZB L s *1 ?7m7ZB L s *1 ?G mG ZB L s *1 ?WmW`B L 0o ?gmgH L 0޽h ? 33]U___PPT105.wF@۲+yD ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DK' =4@BBB B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*.L%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*.L+   0 (\(  (x ( c $` `}    ( c $h> `<$ 0  H ( 0޽h ? ̙f  ___PPT10 .Кd/+[W_D" ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(>%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(>%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(U%(+8+0+(0 +B ! 0 0(X(  Xr X S n `}   k % (X #"*%,$D 0 X <8t?J % L1.84  @` X <8o?J % WPharmaceuticals @` X <y?o J  L2.07  @` X < ?o J  _Other Business Services @`  X <|? o  L2.09  @`  X <? o  r*Personal, Cultural & Recreational Services++ @`  X <f?  L2.26  @`  X <4f?  ^Communication Services @`  X <Df? L2.37  @` X <dƧf? S IT Services   @` X <lϧ̙? L4.68  @` X <ا̙? ZFinancial Services @``B X 0o ?ZB X s *1 ?ZB X s *1 ?ZB X s *1 ?  ZB X s *1 ?o o ZB X s *1 ?J J `B X 0o ?%%`B X 0o ?%ZB X s *1 ?%`B X 0o ?%H X 0޽h ? 33]U___PPT105.xFv&H+Wd)KD ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DK' =4@BBB B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(X%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*(X+   0 0 b(   ~  s * `     c $Lz `<$ 0  H  0޽h ? 3fia___PPT10A.+[W_D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* g%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* g%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* /%(+8+0+ 0 +R  0@% ,Source: Crafts (2005)  `(  x  c $wj    0  fA 7? "` ,H 7$D  0 H  0޽h ? 3f___PPT10v.+ FuD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*D' =%( D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<*+0+(+ 0+ P  0,% Source: ONS & (   ~  s * `     0 3 rA 9?5% "`'EH 9$D  0 H  0޽h ? 3f___PPT10v.+ FuD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%(D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* D' =%( D@' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D' =-o6Bwipe(up)*<3<* +0+(+  0+-   0R % >Source: Rice & Venables (2003) w(o(@??((  x  c $)w9   O'  ` # #"* `,$D 0  B,3?8 ` K1 @`  B,<?8  T  @`  BTE?@ 8  T  @`  BM?8 @  T  @`  B&?8  T  @`   BH_? 8  LHP @`   BPh?] `8  K+ @`   BXq?] 8  K1 @`   B(z?@ ] 8  T  @`   Bdl?] @ 8  T  @`  BL?] 8  T  @`  B@? ] 8  QDensity @`  BH? `]  K+ @`  BP? ]  K+ @`  BX?@ ]  K1 @`  B(? @ ]  T  @`  Bd? ]  T  @`  Bʩ?  ]  KW @`  B ԩ?`  K+ @`  B(ݩ?  K+ @`  BT?@   K+ @`  Bl?@  K1 @`  Bx?  T  @`  B?   PSkills @`  B ?` K+ @`  B? K+ @`  B?@  K+ @`  B@&?@  K+ @`   BD/? K1 @` ! BT8?  MY/L @` " BpA?` NHP @` # BHJ? SDensity @` $ BS?@  MW @` % BD?@  RSkills @` & BLe? OY/L @` ' Bm?  P  @`ZB ( s *Ԕ ? `ZB ) s *1 ? ZB * s *1 ?   ZB + s *1 ? ] ] ZB , s *1 ? 8 8 ZB - s *Ԕ ? `ZB . s *Ԕ ?ZB / s *1 ?ZB 0 s *1 ?@ @ ZB 1 s *1 ?ZB 2 s *1 ?ZB 3 s *Ԕ ?``ZB 4 s *Ԕ ?`ZB 5 s *Ԕ ?  `B 6 0o ? `B 7 0o ?  ZB 8 s *o ?`ZB 9 s *o ? ` ZB : s *o ?] `] ZB ; s *o ?8 `8 ZB < s *o ?ZB = s *o ?@ @ ZB > s *o ?ZB ? s *o ?H  0޽h ? l3]U___PPT105.B2+KD ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DK' =4@BBB B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*+L  0 `\(  x  c $K `}     c $9 `<$ 0  H  0޽h ? l3(  ___PPT10 .Bϼy+N*D ' = @B DW ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*SD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*S%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*S%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(+8+0+0 + " 0 `dP(  dr d S  `}    d S  `<$ 0  H d 0޽h ? 33___PPT10.yF^>+N*D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*dGD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*dG%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*dGD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*dG%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*dD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*dCD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*dC%(+8+0+d0 +    0 tv(  t~ t s * `}    t s *| `<$ 0  H t 0޽h ? unR wnX  ___PPT10 .=PB+[W_D* ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*tf%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*tf%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*t%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*t%%(+8+0+t0 +l   08 % $Source: UBS (2008) VN(  ~  s *٭ `}   ( 0 s 0e0eA 2?jJ S" ]d H 2$D  0 H  0޽h ? unR wnX~v___PPT10V.=`+g7D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%( DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*D' =%( DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*+0+(+ 0+߭  0J % 6Source: A. T.Kearney (2007) KCl(  l~ l s *@ `    l s *,   <$ 0   l s *` ` <$ 0   q l C xȫ v+#.<*l %(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l %(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l!%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l!.%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l.9%(D ' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l.%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l.=%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l=I%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*l%(++0+l0 ++0+l0 ++0+l0 +   0 dv(  d~ d s *x  `    d s *  `<$ 0  H d 0޽h ? unR wnX  ___PPT10w .=++[W_D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d@%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d@%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d^%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*d^%(+8+0+d0 +   0 `\\(  \x \ c $p< `}    \ c $p= `<$ 0  H \ 0޽h ? 33  ___PPT10 ..+[W_D* ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D)' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%())))?D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*\!%(D' =%(D)' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%())))?D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*\!p%(D' =%(D)' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%())))?D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*\p%(D' =%(D)' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%())))?D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*\%(+8+0+\0 +  0 ""y(  x  c $I `}     `> # #"* `><$D 0   BP?b `> N3.40 @`  BY?jb > Q 3.69 @`  Bhb? b j> YRegulatory Regime @`  Blf? `b  N4.29 @`  Bp]f?j b  Q 3.69 @`   B4~f?  jb  XMarket Liquidity @`   BHf? `  N3.36 @`   Bf?j   Q 3.77 @`   B̗f?  j  WQuality of Life @`   BH̙?`  N4.24 @`  B0̙?j  Q 3.96 @`  B ̙? j  [Size of Labour Pool @`  B?` N3.96 @`  BŰ?j Q 4.00 @`  Bΰ? j `Financial Infrastructure @`  Bpװ?` MScore @`  Bl?j R Importance   @`  B? j P  @`ZB  s *Ԕ ? `ZB  s *1 ? `ZB  s *1 ?  ` ZB  s *1 ?  ` ZB  s *1 ? b `b ZB  s *Ԕ ? >`>ZB  s *Ԕ ?jj>ZB  s *Ԕ ?>ZB  s *Ԕ ?``>ZB  s *Ԕ ?j`ZB   s *Ԕ ?  >`B ! 0o ? j`B " 0o ?  H  0޽h ? 33]U___PPT105.@B=+KD ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DK' =4@BBB B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*+  0 ""(  x  c $ `}     `f # #"* `f<$D 0   B?a `f N3.85 @`  BX ?ja f Q 3.42 @`  B? a jf `Financial Infrastructure @`  B!f? `a  N2.11 @`  Bh+f?j a  Q 3.59 @`   B4f?  ja  XProperty Rentals @`   B4=f? `  N3.22 @`   B8Gf?j   Q 3.89 @`   BAf?  j  dFlexibility of Labour Market @`   BLY̙?`  N4.08 @`  BK̙?j  Q 3.92 @`  Bk̙? j  [Size of Labour Pool @`  BTu?` N2.74 @`  Bf?j Q 4.00 @`  B? j YTotal Labour Cost @`  Bȏ?` MScore @`  B$?j R Importance   @`  BD? j P  @`ZB  s *Ԕ ? `ZB  s *1 ? `ZB  s *1 ?  ` ZB  s *1 ?  ` ZB  s *1 ? a `a ZB  s *Ԕ ? f`fZB  s *Ԕ ?jjfZB  s *Ԕ ?fZB  s *Ԕ ?``fZB  s *Ԕ ?j``B   0o ? jZB ! s *Ԕ ?  f`B " 0o ?  H  0޽h ? 33]U___PPT105.,Z3+KD ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(DK' =4@BBB B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*+ $ 0 tP(  tr t S < `    t S <z `<$ 0  H t 0޽h ? 33  ___PPT10 .yFୠ+[W_Ds ' = @B D. ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*tI%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*tI|%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*t|%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*t%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*tN%(+8+0+t0 +I % 0T % @Source: Leunig & Overman (2008) #|8(  |x | c $ϳ `}   B | s *D ,$D  0B  | s *D g ,$D  0B  | s *DԔ0 0 ,$D  0B  | c $D   ,$D   0B  | c $D ,$D  0B  | c $Dp0 p,$D   0B | c $D 0 ,$D   0 | C BCDEpF0Ԕ{#AP] aMT= G Z % : , 4 Z@         "` ,$D  0 | # B CDE(Fm =Y{`abyb @   "` ` ,$D  0 | <`ֳW,$ 0 ;NW3 | <l۳7,$  0 ;NW2 | <T6 7 ,$  0 ;NW1 | <\ ,$ 0 :NA | << ,$ 0 :NB | <T - ,$ 0 N | <$b,$ 0 ENew Net Wage Curve | 0"` I,$D 0  Welfare Loss 2  | <D  ,$ 0 DOld Net Wage Curve  | <8 M ! ,$ 0 1A !| <&,$ 0 1B "| <Q Z ,$ 0 >A1  #| <:,$ 0 NWH | 0޽h ? 33m5e5___PPT10E5.yFP"+FDA2' = @B D1' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D31' =%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<* |D(' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*#|%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*|D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<* |D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<* |D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<*|D' =%( D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%( D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<* |D' =%( D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%( D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =-s6Bwipe(left)*<3<* |D' =%( D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*|D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* |%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D7' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =-s6Bwipe(down)*<3<*|D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*"|%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*!|%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =%(D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*|%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*|++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+|0 ++0+ |0 ++0+!|0 ++0+"|0 ++0+#|0 +  & 0 P(  r  S : `     S B `<$ 0  H  0޽h ? 33  ___PPT10 .yFp]+[W_D* ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*U%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*U%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*W%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*W%(+8+0+0 +  ' 0 P(  r  S [ `}     S \ `<$ 0  H  0޽h ? 33me___PPT10E.zF^C+[W_D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*]%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*]%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*G%(+8+0+0 + 0 P,(  ^  S      c $ @   " H  0޽h ? ̙3380___PPT10.3 % 0 p,(  ^  S      c $ @   " H  0޽h ? ̙3380___PPT10.3 % 0 $,(  $^ $ S     $ c $p% @   " H $ 0޽h ? ̙3380___PPT10.3 % 0 ,((  ,^ , S     , c $Hl 0    H , 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.e  0 p`((  `^ ` S     ` c $D 0    H ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.?h 0 h((  h^ h S     h c $3 0    H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.=+ 0 p((  p^ p S     p c $ 0    H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.=l 0 x((  x^ x S     x c $t֭ 0    H x 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.=P E 0 ((  ^  S      c $ 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.=` 0 P((  ^  S      c $t  0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.WСMb 0 p((  ^  S      c $ 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.WСMb 0 ((  ^  S      c $ 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.?h 0 ((  ^  S      c $ 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.j  0 (  X  C      S n 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.%D`>  0 (  X  C      S  0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.%DPLC  0  (  X  C      S r 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'Dpu&  0 @(  X  C      S a 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'D,E  0 p(  X  C      S { 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'D  0 (  X  C      S 6 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'D 0 ((  ^  S      c $| 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.'D  0 (  X  C      S  0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.(D`  0  (   X   C       S š 0    H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.(D@ 0 0((  ^  S      c $ 0    H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.(D@  0 P ((   ^   S       c $t  0    H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.(D@ ! 0 p((  (X ( C     ( S 0s 0    H ( 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.)Dpj " 0 0(  0X 0 C     0 S L 0    H 0 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.vFB # 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H2 c"+ԭ, November 19, 2008.-՜.+,0h    On-screen ShowUniversity of WarwickN`$$' 'ArialDefault DesignMicrosoft Graph ChartLThe Changing Place of Britain in the World Economy: a Long-Term PerspectiveThemesReal GDP/PersonRelative Economic Decline)Shares of World Manufacturing Production%Shares of World Manufactured ExportsDe-IndustrialisationEmployment Shares (%)(Detailed Employment Shares (1) Percent(Detailed Employment Shares (2) Percent$Reversing Relative Economic DeclineThe Beveridge Curve$Reversing Relative Economic DeclineTrade Exposure [(X+M)/GDP] (%)&The Payoff from Globalisation (% GDP)UK Comparative Advantage?Revealed Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing: Top 3 sectors5Lancashire Textiles and Globalization (Leunig, 2005)9Revealed Comparative Advantage, 2006: Top 6, All Sectors'Regional Implications of Globalization7Regional GDP/Person (% deviation from British average)7Regional GDP/Person (% deviation from British average)3Correlations When One City has Higher Productivity!Equilibrium Regional Disparities#Sub-Optimal Size of British CitiesDeath of Distance?#Wage Levels, 2008 (New York = 100)Top 10 Offshoring Locations Offshoring: EvidenceLondon as a Financial Centre0UK Asset Management: Core Business OXERA (2005).UK Asset Management: Back-Office OXERA (2005)Agglomeration Economies Welfare Loss$Planning Laws Need a Major Re-Think Conclusions  Fonts UsedDesign TemplateEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titles$_olezeblezeb  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&-Root EntrydO)PicturesMCurrent UserSummaryInformation(t&PowerPoint Document( DocumentSummaryInformation8